In the current lockdowns if the
proper physical distancing or compliance is not properly followed, the total
number of cases (asymptomatic, hospitalized and symptomatic) can even touch a
massive figure.
In the most likely (Medium)
scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or
temperature/humidity sensitivity, the numbers of total cases can swell up to
few lakhs.
The optimistic (low) scenario
constitutes decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity. To reach
these numbers, Johns Hopkins and CDDEP -- a public health research organisation
-- used IndiaSIM, a well-validated agent-based model of the Indian population,
which has been published widely over many years and has been used for
government decision-making. According to the report, hospitalised cases can
reach up to 25 lakh people in the High scenario, 17-18 lakh people in Medium
scenario and 13 lakh people in Low scenario.
In what could spell real trouble
for the country in the next three months, a new report from prestigious Johns
Hopkins University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
(CDDEP) has predicted that 21-day lockdown may be ineffective to stop the
COVID-19 peak arriving in April-May-June -- infecting few lakhs Indians in an
optimistic (low) scenario.
Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan,
director of the US-based Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, and
an advisor to the World Health Organisation (WHO) and World Bank, had
previously warned India that In a worst-case scenario, India would experience a
novel coronavirus high infection rate, which would see approximately majority
of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the country, leading public health expert
estimates. India’s jam-packed cities and heavily crowded public transport
also throws a unique challenge to social distancing, which is necessary to curb
the spread of novel coronavirus. Now, in view of the effective enforcement of
lockdown measures and countrywide curfews that were recently enforced by the
Indian government, that worst-case number will not be very high. Furthermore,
an overwhelming majority of these infections are likely to be extremely mild.
In case if a high number of
people becomes ill, with few lakhs requiring intensive medical treatment would
put an immense strain on India’s healthcare system. In a worst-case scenario,
estimation is based on how transmissible the novel coronavirus would be in
India. If citizens fail to follow the social distancing, the virus would be as
transmissible as it has been in USA, Italy, Spain, UK, Germany, France, Iran
and China which will effectively take the worst-case numbers to higher side.
There are various agencies, who
have been consistently updating the countrywide COVID-19 infection status and
deceased, but in-fact due to less testing in the country the real number of
confirmed cases is significantly higher. It is almost impossible that this
[community transmission] could not have happened in a situation where about
tens of thousands of people travelled from different places of the world could
not properly tested during entry in the country and to imagine that none of
them carried the coronavirus.
We are required to upgrade the
medical facilities, expand testing, and spread awareness to promote careful
prophylaxis than to politicise the issues and irrationally connecting the
spread of the disease to a particular community. Now the role of media is very
important to provide the real picture and solace to the community than to play
dirty politics to improve their TRP. Rather than they should encourage the
community in seriously preparing for the mitigation, which would require making
several thousands of beds available in advance.
The Covid-19 is going to
testify few things about India like our health system capacity; our system of
governance on how much people listen to what the government is saying; and our
social structure, whether people are going to support and cooperate each other.[1]
As per the reports and
estimations, the Ventilator demand in India may go up to 1 million while the
current availability in India is estimated to be between 30,000 and 50,000
ventilators. People could need ICU treatment; India needs to urgently import
ICU equipment, ventilators and a range of medicines.
The possibility of infection to
doctors and nurses could further increase deaths in the general population.
Healthcare workers need personal protective equipment like masks and gowns to
protect themselves. In lack of the proper support they may get sick and
challenging, the potential of the health support system.
As per the current WHO reports,
the number of coronavirus, cases until 4th April 2020 have crossed three
thousand in India (good part is that very few are critical and more than 500
are recovered) and 11.5 lakhs globally (around 80,000 cases are mild condition
but around 40,000 cases are critical in nature) while the death toll crossed 86
in India and 61,000 globally.[2] Good thing is that around 236,000 cases recovered
globally. However, the coming weeks of April when peak may begin and delays in
testing are seriously reducing the ability of the people to protect themselves.
This is the most important way in which we can reduce the epidemic. A real
number of detected cases in the short term could encourage the people to take
social distancing more seriously and may reduce the panic compared to a big
challenge later on.
Learnings from China provides
that higher temperature and humidity may likely to lower the transmission rates
but it is not very clear that how this will affect the Indian scenario.
However, the best strategy is to be prepared for multiple peaks and should be
ready for any emergency happening later. People who will show symptoms next
week are already infected and incubating the virus. Some of these will transmit
before they are symptomatic. A large percentage of cases are mild, but for
older individuals, the mortality rate is strikingly higher. Children are less
likely to be infected and less likely to be hospitalized than adults are.
Illness is less likely to be severe in children than in adults, and the
infection rate is less likely in females than males.[3]
it is essential to test those who
have symptoms such as coughs, cold, fever or respiratory distress even though
they have no travel history or have not come in contact with an infected
person. Testing is important otherwise we will not know what percentage of
people with such symptoms are coronavirus-related as opposed to sufferers of
ordinary seasonal colds, coughs and flu. India govt. had acted promptly to
check entry into the country and while sensible steps like shutting schools,
colleges, theatres and cinemas and imposing lock-down in time but woefully the
testing is inadequate for a country with a 1.3 billion population.
There is no need to rush for
immediate testing but if you have a cold or cough or fever or respiratory
distress and it persist after about four days then you should get yourself
tested. If someone is quarantined at your house, then rest of the family
members should take commonsensical precautions but this does not mean that they
cannot enter the premises to serve eatables. They can actually hand the tray
over rather than leave it two feet away. You can wash the utensils used by such
a person or their clothes and there is no need to wear gloves but you must wash
your hand. There is absolutely no scientific basis for believing drinking
gaumutra and taking gobar baths could prevent the Coronavirus infection. There
is also no scientific basis for any of the homeopathic remedies that are being
suggested for the cure of Covid-19.[4]
[1]https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2020-03-23-covid-19-worst-case-scenario-30-crore-indian-infected-coronavirus.
Visited on 2nd April, 2020
[3]https://www.ndtv.com/health/coronavirus-india-may-see-25-crore-covid-19-cases-in-next-3-months-report-2201489.
[4] https://thewire.in/health/india-coronavirus-ramanan-laxminarayan
. Visited on 2nd April, 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment